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    Fannie Mae

    A housing finance enterprise whose Economic and Strategic Research group publishes monthly economic and housing forecasts.

    Government-sponsored enterprise · United StatesWashington, D.C.4 reports104 figuresInstitution website ↗

    What they changed their mind about

    13 revisions
    2026-09-11U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.2%→2.1
    2026-09-11U.S. unemployment rate 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average4.4%→4.2
    2026-09-11U.S. unemployment rate 2026 full year · Annual average4.3→4.2
    2026-09-11U.S. unemployment rate 2027 full year · Annual average4.3→4.2
    2026-09-11U.S. headline CPI inflation 2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year3.3%→3.4
    2026-09-11U.S. nonfarm payroll growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average monthly change66K/mo→65
    2026-09-11U.S. nonfarm payroll growth 2026 full year · Annual growth0.5→0.9
    2026-09-11U.S. nonfarm payroll growth 2027 full year · Annual growth0.5→0.8
    2026-09-11Federal funds rate 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average3.6%→4.0
    2026-09-11Federal funds rate 2026 full year · Annual average3.6→3.7
    2026-09-11Federal funds rate 2027 full year · Annual average3.6→4.1
    2026-09-11U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average4.5%→4.8
    2026-09-11U.S. personal consumption growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.4%→2.1

    Federal funds rate

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-113.7
    2026 Q4“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.0
    2026 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.7
    2027 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.1
    2026 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |” — Forecast table, Federal Funds Rate, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.6
    2027 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |” — Forecast table, Federal Funds Rate, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.6
    2026 Q4“Federal Funds Rate | 26.4 | 3.6” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.6%

    U.S. 10-year Treasury yield

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.7
    2026 Q4“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.8
    2026 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.5
    2027 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.9
    2026 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Forecast table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-134.5
    2027 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Forecast table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-134.9
    2026 Q4“10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 26.4 | 4.5” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-104.5%

    U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q4“30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 26.4 | 6.4” — Housing Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-106.4%

    U.S. business fixed investment growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 full year“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 4.6 |” — Table, Business Fixed Investment row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-118.2
    2027 full year“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 4.6 |” — Table, Business Fixed Investment row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.6
    2026 Q4“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 4.8 |” — Forecast table, Business Fixed Investment, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-137.5
    2027 Q4“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 4.8 |” — Forecast table, Business Fixed Investment, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-134.8
    2026 Q4“Business Fixed Investment | 26.4 | 5.8” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-105.8%

    U.S. core CPI inflation

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 full year“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |” — Table, Core Consumer Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.6
    2027 full year“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |” — Table, Core Consumer Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    2026 Q4“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.5
    2027 Q4“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.4
    2026 Q4“Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 26.4 | 2.9” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-102.9%

    U.S. core PCE inflation

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 full year“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 |” — Table, Core PCE Chain Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    2027 full year“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 |” — Table, Core PCE Chain Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    2026 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.2
    2027 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.2
    2026 Q4“Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 26.4 | 3.3” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.3%

    U.S. existing-home sales

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q4“Existing (Single-Family, Condos/Co-Ops) | 26.4 | 4,204” — Housing Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-104.204M

    U.S. headline CPI inflation

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    2026 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    2026 full year“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    2027 Q1“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-112.9
    2027 Q2“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-111.8
    2027 Q3“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-111.8
    2027 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-111.7
    2027 full year“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-111.7
    2026 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.0 |” — Forecast table, Consumer Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.1
    2027 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.0 |” — Forecast table, Consumer Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.0
    2026 Q4“Consumer Price Index | 26.4 | 3.3” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.3%

    U.S. headline PCE inflation

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.8
    2027 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    2026 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.5
    2027 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.1
    2026 Q4“PCE Chain Price Index | 26.4 | 3.5” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.5%

    U.S. home-price growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q4“Fannie Mae HPI | 26.4 | 2.3” — Housing Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-102.3%

    U.S. housing starts

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q4“Total Housing Starts | 26.4 | 1,314” — Housing Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-101.314M

    U.S. new single-family home sales

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q4“New Single-Family | 26.4 | 669” — Housing Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-10669K

    U.S. nonfarm payroll growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-1178
    2026 Q4“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-1165
    2026 full year“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-110.9
    2027 Q1“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-1162
    2027 Q2“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-1168
    2027 Q3“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-1168
    2027 Q4“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-1172
    2027 full year“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-110.8
    2026 full year“| Percent Change: Q4/Q4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |” — Forecast table, Employment, Total Nonfarm, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-130.5
    2027 full year“| Percent Change: Q4/Q4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |” — Forecast table, Employment, Total Nonfarm, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-130.5
    2026 Q4“Employment, Total Nonfarm | 26.4 | 66” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-1066K/mo

    U.S. personal consumption growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    2026 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    2026 full year“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    2027 Q1“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    2027 Q2“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    2027 Q3“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.2
    2027 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    2027 full year“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.2
    2026 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 |” — Forecast table, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.0
    2027 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 |” — Forecast table, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.3
    2026 Q4“Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 26.4 | 2.4” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-102.4%

    U.S. real GDP growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.4
    2026 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    2026 full year“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    2027 Q1“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    2027 Q2“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-112.6
    2027 Q3“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    2027 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    2027 full year“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    2026 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Forecast table, Gross Domestic Product, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.0
    2027 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Forecast table, Gross Domestic Product, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.5
    2026 Q4“Gross Domestic Product | 26.4 | 2.2” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-102.2%

    U.S. residential investment growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-11-5.8
    2026 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-110.2
    2026 full year“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-11-3.1
    2027 Q1“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-115.2
    2027 Q2“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-112.4
    2027 Q3“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.5
    2027 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.0
    2027 full year“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.0
    2026 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.5 | -2.0 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -3.8 | -2.3 | 3.4 |” — Forecast table, Residential Fixed Investment, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-13-2.3
    2027 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.5 | -2.0 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -3.8 | -2.3 | 3.4 |” — Forecast table, Residential Fixed Investment, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.4

    U.S. unemployment rate

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q3“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.1
    2026 Q4“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    2026 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    2027 Q1“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    2027 Q2“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    2027 Q3“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.3
    2027 Q4“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.3
    2027 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    2026 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-134.3
    2027 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-134.3
    2026 Q4“Unemployment Rate | 26.4 | 4.4” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-104.4%