U.S. nonfarm payroll growth

Projected average monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment.

United States · thousand jobs/month20 extracted figures3 institutions1 comparable groups

Revisions on this metric

4 on record

2026-09-11Fannie Mae 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average monthly change~~66K/mo~~→65

2026-09-11Fannie Mae 2026 full year · Annual growth~~0.5~~→0.9

2026-09-11Fannie Mae 2027 full year · Annual growth~~0.5~~→0.8

2026-08-14Philadelphia Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average monthly change~~58.4K/mo~~→66.4

2026 Q4 · Quarterly average monthly change

2 institutions

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2026 Q4“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗	2026-09-11	65
Wells Fargo	2026 Q4“Nonfarm Payroll Change (d) \| 2026 4Q \| 88” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗	2026-07-30	88K/mo
Fannie Mae	2026 Q4“Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 26.4 \| 66” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗	2026-07-10	66K/mo

Readout

Consensus: 76.5K/mo
Spread: +23.0K/mo
Low: 65.0K/mo
High: 88.0K/mo
Reporting: 2
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

2026 Q3 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 2.2 \| 2.5 \| 4.5 \| 4.2 \| 61.2 \| 45.6 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q3 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	45.6

Readout

Low: 45.6K/mo
High: 45.6K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q3 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2026 Q3“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗	2026-09-11	78

Readout

Low: 78.0K/mo
High: 78.0K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q4 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2026 Q4“\| 2026:Q4 \| 1.6 \| 2.3 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 58.4 \| 66.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q4 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	66.4
Philadelphia Fed	2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Payrolls (000s/month) \| New 58.4” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	58.4K/mo

Readout

Low: 66.4K/mo
High: 66.4K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 full year · Annual average

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2026 full year“\| 2026 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 4.4 \| 4.3 \| 34.6 \| 40.7 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	40.7

Readout

Low: 40.7K/mo
High: 40.7K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual average

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2026 full year“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 annual column · source ↗	2026-09-11	0.9
Fannie Mae	2026 full year“\| Percent Change: Q4/Q4 \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| 0.2 \| 0.5 \| 0.5 \|” — Forecast table, Employment, Total Nonfarm, 2026 annual column · source ↗	2026-08-13	0.5

Readout

Low: 0.9K/mo
High: 0.9K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q1 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.0 \| 94.9 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	94.9

Readout

Low: 94.9K/mo
High: 94.9K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q1 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2027 Q1“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗	2026-09-11	62

Readout

Low: 62.0K/mo
High: 62.0K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q2 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 97.3 \| 80.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	80.4

Readout

Low: 80.4K/mo
High: 80.4K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q2 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2027 Q2“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗	2026-09-11	68

Readout

Low: 68.0K/mo
High: 68.0K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q3 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 2.2 \| N.A. \| 4.3 \| N.A. \| 56.2 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	56.2

Readout

Low: 56.2K/mo
High: 56.2K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q3 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2027 Q3“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗	2026-09-11	68

Readout

Low: 68.0K/mo
High: 68.0K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q4 · Quarterly average monthly change

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2027 Q4“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗	2026-09-11	72

Readout

Low: 72.0K/mo
High: 72.0K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly average monthly change

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 full year · Annual average

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 full year“\| 2027 \| 1.9 \| 2.2 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.4 \| 75.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	75.4

Readout

Low: 75.4K/mo
High: 75.4K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual average

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2027 full year“\| Employment, Total Nonfarm \| 20 \| 34 \| 23 \| -39 \| 73 \| 81 \| 78 \| 65 \| 62 \| 68 \| 72 \| 0.1 \| 0.9 \| 0.8 \|” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 annual column · source ↗	2026-09-11	0.8
Fannie Mae	2027 full year“\| Percent Change: Q4/Q4 \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| 0.2 \| 0.5 \| 0.5 \|” — Forecast table, Employment, Total Nonfarm, 2027 annual column · source ↗	2026-08-13	0.5

Readout

Low: 0.8K/mo
High: 0.8K/mo
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.