Deloitte

Publishes a quarterly United States economic forecast with an explicit baseline and alternative scenarios.

Consultancy · United StatesNew York2 reports17 figuresInstitution website ↗

What they changed their mind about

3 revisions
2026-09-29U.S. real GDP growth 2026 full year · Annual growth2.0%→2.1%
2026-09-29U.S. real GDP growth 2030 full year · Annual growth2.1%→2.3%
2026-09-29U.S. business fixed investment growth 2026 full year · Annual growth6.1%→6.6%

Brent crude oil price

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 full year“Our baseline forecast assumes that the price of Brent crude averages US$92 per barrel in 2026 and falls to US$80 per barrel in 2027.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-07-01US$92 per barrel
2027 full year“Our baseline forecast assumes that the price of Brent crude averages US$92 per barrel in 2026 and falls to US$80 per barrel in 2027.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-07-01US$80 per barrel

U.S. business fixed investment growth

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 full year“We now expect it to grow by 6.6% this year and another 5.1% next year.” — Business investment section · source ↗2026-09-296.6%
2027 full year“We now expect it to grow by 6.6% this year and another 5.1% next year.” — Business investment section · source ↗2026-09-295.1%
2026 full year“Indeed, we have revised our outlook for fixed business investment growthto 6.1% in 2026, up from the 4% in our previous forecast.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-07-016.1%

U.S. core CPI inflation

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PeriodReportedForecast
2029 full year“On a sequential basis, we expect core inflation to moderate until 2029, when it is projected to return to the US Fed’s 2% target.” — Prices section · source ↗2026-09-292%

U.S. personal consumption growth

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 full year“We now expect real consumer spending to grow by 2% this year before decelerating to 1.4% next year.” — Consumer spending section · source ↗2026-09-292%
2027 full year“We now expect real consumer spending to grow by 2% this year before decelerating to 1.4% next year.” — Consumer spending section · source ↗2026-09-291.4%
2030 full year“By 2031, real consumer spending is expected to grow by 2.1%.” — Consumer spending section · source ↗2026-09-292.1%

U.S. real GDP growth

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 full year“We expect real GDP growth to slow modestly from 2.1% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2028.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-09-292.1%
2028 full year“We expect real GDP growth to slow modestly from 2.1% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2028.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-09-291.9%
2030 full year“We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.3% by 2031—up slightly from the 2.2% growth forecasted last year.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-09-292.3%
2026 full year“Real GDP is still expected to grow by a healthy 2.0% in 2026, before slipping to 1.8% in 2027, when consumer spending is on a more sustainable footing and AI-related investment growth moderates a bit.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-07-012.0%
2027 full year“Real GDP is still expected to grow by a healthy 2.0% in 2026, before slipping to 1.8% in 2027, when consumer spending is on a more sustainable footing and AI-related investment growth moderates a bit.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-07-011.8%
2030 full year“As a result, real GDP in 2030 is expected to be 2.1%, up from the 1.7% we forecasted in March.” — Baseline section · source ↗2026-07-012.1%

U.S. unemployment rate

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 full year“A slowdown in employment growth along with more modest declines in the workforce participation rate will allow the unemployment rate to drift upward from an expected 4.2% average in 2026 to 4.3% in 2028.” — Labor market section · source ↗2026-09-294.2% average
2028 full year“A slowdown in employment growth along with more modest declines in the workforce participation rate will allow the unemployment rate to drift upward from an expected 4.2% average in 2026 to 4.3% in 2028.” — Labor market section · source ↗2026-09-294.3%